As I navigated the streets of Almaty in November 2023, the city's pulsating energy was palpable, but so was the strain of its recent economic upheaval. Fresh from my travels in Kyrgyzstan, where the cost of living had been notably lower, the high prices in Almaty were immediately evident. Conversations with locals revealed a complex tapestry of geopolitical shifts and economic adjustments, painting a picture far more intricate than I had anticipated.

The cause, as explained to me by residents, was the influx of wealthy Russians fleeing their country's involvement in the war with Ukraine. Their arrival in Almaty had a domino effect on the local economy. The real estate market, in particular, was hit hard, with rents in the city center almost doubling. The cost of everyday essentials like food also soared, leaving many locals grappling with a new financial reality.

This scenario mirrored my experiences during a second visit to Tunisia post the Libyan "revolution". There, too, an influx of affluent refugees had temporarily unsettled the local economy. It struck me how often neighboring countries become inadvertent economic casualties of conflicts next door.

As I pondered these shifts, I was reminded of Halford John Mackinder's pivotal geopolitical theory from the early 20th century. In his 1904 article "The Geographical Pivot of History," Mackinder identified Central Asia, or the 'Heartland,' as a crucial geopolitical hub. This region, comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, forms a significant expanse at the Eurasian continent's core.

Mackinder's later summation in 1919, highlighting the strategic importance of Eastern Europe and the Heartland in global dominance, seemed eerily prescient in the context of current events in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Both nations have substantial Russian minorities, raising concerns about potential separatist movements similar to those in Ukraine. Kazakhstan's geopolitical neutrality, a balancing act between major world powers, appeared increasingly precarious.

Nicholas Spykman's incorporation of Mackinder's ideas in "America’s Strategy in World Politics" further underscored Kazakhstan's critical role in global geopolitics, a position now augmented by its involvement in the new Silk Road.

As I walked through Almaty, absorbing the vibrant blend of cultures and the buzz of a city at a geopolitical crossroads, I couldn't help but hope that the theories and predictions of Mackinder and Spykman would remain confined to academic discourse. The last thing this region, or the world, needed was another conflict like the one in Ukraine. For now, Almaty stood as a testament to the resilience and adaptability of its people, a city facing the future with a complex, yet steadfast, gaze.